December 2022 - Loudoun Weather

YES, there does appear to be a winter weather event possible late next week!

We have definitely turned to a colder airmass and that looks to stay. Real cold may take a bit longer, but by the end of the year, it could get super cold for a period.

We ended up being sunny today when the system that was looking to do something literally was eaten alive by the block in place that is filtering in the colder air. We will be only in the 40s for the foreseeable future and nighttime lows are trending colder!

Next Thursday shows as a huge question mark as there does appear to be at least the threat of wintry weather, but will it transform into a bigger winter storm?? Way too early to get too excited about it! I will do daily updates on that risk.

The longer-range looks colder than normal and it could trend super cold by the end of the year.

So, with potential snow and at least colder weather, I am certain you need to think about what to do with animals, snow blowers, etc.! I will start saying that more if we get some more confidence next week!

All for now! I will do a quick check in after noon model runs!

12/4/2022 – IS THERE HOPE FOR SNOW?
YES – but it may take longer to be realized!

I know I have been a bit down on the pattern, but it looks like things may have been delayed and not denied! The long-range still holds potential for a wintrier pattern. The first piece in the puzzle DOES come into play this week is the Negative NAO. That may be a bit technical, but it sets up a block for storms moving along in the jet stream, which could help form bigger storms, AND keep colder air from retreating so that *COULD* mean some snow or frozen precipitation!

The pattern will be strange this week, and we have a front nearby with several waves of energy. That means that starting Tuesday through Friday, we could see daily showers. Tuesday looks the wettest, whereas the rest of the week looks like showers, although Thursday may turn wetter overnight.

The following week, things *COULD* become better oriented as better cold air and blocking continue, and we get some other energy coming close by! I need to temper any excitement and remember that the models struggle when patterns change. The biggest part of the miss for this week was trapping the cold air on the right side of the block so it would be in our “backyards” for any storms. That was missed big time by models, and they forecasted it would be here! It was not!

This week will be seasonably mild and above normal Thursday before the cooler next weekend.

A more detailed forecast will be posted tomorrow!

All for now